WHY THE US CANNOT DEFEAT CHINA

 

WHY THE US CANNOT DEFEAT CHINA

The history of international relations tells us that the US undertook a very comprehensive strategy of containment to limitize the influence and global outreach of the USSR and communism between 1947 and 1991. This strategy , adopted during the period commonly known as the Cold War, was carried out by the US by building strategic arsenal, forming security institutions, winning allies , providing economic packages to anti-communism states and entities and by engaging its communist opponent, USSR, in a proxy warfare wherever the opportunity arose. This strategy remained quite successful and achieved its objective with the collapse of the then USSR in 1991.

Once again the US is undertaking the same containment strategy with some added features ,like trade and information warfare, to checkmate China’s growing power and influence. The question that arises in this regard is that whether American containment strategy against China will remain successful this time around or not?

The Chances of modern containment strategy , which I have reffered to as “Containment 2.0", gaining success are very low for multiple reasons.

Firstly, China and USSR are ideologically different. China does not want its system of government to be imposed on the people across the globe as the USSR once did. When a power wants to do such sort of thing, it has to be ready to face opposition from domestic as well as international entities, and a huge chunk of economic and military resources has to be specified to win subscribers to one’s ideology and also to checkmate the opponents. As China has never been on a mission to spread its ideology of social, political and economic organisation around the world as the USSR once did, therefore China has not only saved its economic and military resources but it has also avoided proxy wars in foreign lands which are often a huge drain on a state’s resources.

Secondly, China’s economic strength is far greater than that of the USSR during the Cold War. The GDP of the USSR never exceeded 25% of that of the US during the Cold War. China is now world’s largest economy in terms of purchasing power parity( PPP) and is going to be so in nominal terms as well in the coming decades.

Thirdly, China’s global trade is so huge that no country of the world can afford disengagement from China. The trade wars which the US started with China has cost the US millions of job losses at home. China has become the epicenter of global supply chains. Even America’s closest allies like India, Australia, Japan and South Korea cannot afford confrontation with China. India’s bilateral trade with China is above 90 billion dollars, whereas the other three allies of the US mentioned above are members of RCEP. Therefore, they will never be very instrumental for the US in its mission containment, for sour relations with China will have serious repercussions for their economies as well as for their national security.

Fourthly, the US is not in a position to put forth attractive economic packages to win allies to its cause due to its domestic problems.It must not be forgotten that the US won allies during its cold war against the USSR on the basis of attractive trade and aid packages. The Europe was given Marshall Plan; South Korea was given blessed with huge amounts of aid and FDI;and Japan was blessed with preferential trade agreements. However, the US is not in a position to do such type of things now. On the other hand, China’s OBOR is spreading fast as it promises unprecedented development in the countries of the global south. It is providing multiple countries around the world with much needed investment in crucial sectors like energy and transport. This has helped China gain more soft power around the world. Moreover, OBOR will be bring huge economic and strategic benefits to China once it matures.

Last but not the least, the global order championed by the US has brought more problems to the world than it solved. Its failed wars in the Middle East , Africa and Asia have disillusioned common people with the American neo-imperialist policies. Its leveraging of dollar and Bretton Woods institutions to its advantage and against states like Iran, North Korea and Pakistan has also made it clear to people that promises made by the US for a liberal global order were just hollow. Therefore, people no longer like a world dominated by the US. This loss of soft power by the US will be a great disadvantage for America in its mission containment against China.

The history of international relations tells us that the US undertook a very comprehensive strategy of containment to limitize the influence and global outreach of the USSR and communism between 1947 and 1991. This strategy , adopted during the period commonly known as the Cold War, was carried out by the US by building strategic arsenal, forming security institutions, winning allies , providing economic packages to anti-communism states and entities and by engaging its communist opponent, USSR, in a proxy warfare wherever the opportunity arose. This strategy remained quite successful and achieved its objective with the collapse of the then USSR in 1991.

Once again the US is undertaking the same containment strategy with some added features ,like trade and information warfare, to checkmate China’s growing power and influence. The question that arises in this regard is that whether American containment strategy against China will remain successful this time around or not?

The Chances of modern containment strategy , which I have reffered to as “Containment 2.0", gaining success are very low for multiple reasons.

Firstly, China and USSR are ideologically different. China does not want its system of government to be imposed on the people across the globe as the USSR once did. When a power wants to do such sort of thing, it has to be ready to face opposition from domestic as well as international entities, and a huge chunk of economic and military resources has to be specified to win subscribers to one’s ideology and also to checkmate the opponents. As China has never been on a mission to spread its ideology of social, political and economic organisation around the world as the USSR once did, therefore China has not only saved its economic and military resources but it has also avoided proxy wars in foreign lands which are often a huge drain on a state’s resources.

Secondly, China’s economic strength is far greater than that of the USSR during the Cold War. The GDP of the USSR never exceeded 25% of that of the US during the Cold War. China is now world’s largest economy in terms of purchasing power parity( PPP) and is going to be so in nominal terms as well in the coming decades.

Thirdly, China’s global trade is so huge that no country of the world can afford disengagement from China. The trade wars which the US started with China has cost the US millions of job losses at home. China has become the epicenter of global supply chains. Even America’s closest allies like India, Australia, Japan and South Korea cannot afford confrontation with China. India’s bilateral trade with China is above 90 billion dollars, whereas the other three allies of the US mentioned above are members of RCEP. Therefore, they will never be very instrumental for the US in its mission containment, for sour relations with China will have serious repercussions for their economies as well as for their national security.

Fourthly, the US is not in a position to put forth attractive economic packages to win allies to its cause due to its domestic problems.It must not be forgotten that the US won allies during its cold war against the USSR on the basis of attractive trade and aid packages. The Europe was given Marshall Plan; South Korea was given blessed with huge amounts of aid and FDI;and Japan was blessed with preferential trade agreements. However, the US is not in a position to do such type of things now. On the other hand, China’s OBOR is spreading fast as it promises unprecedented development in the countries of the global south. It is providing multiple countries around the world with much needed investment in crucial sectors like energy and transport. This has helped China gain more soft power around the world. Moreover, OBOR will be bring huge economic and strategic benefits to China once it matures.

Last but not the least, the global order championed by the US has brought more problems to the world than it solved. Its failed wars in the Middle East , Africa and Asia have disillusioned common people with the American neo-imperialist policies. Its leveraging of dollar and Bretton Woods institutions to its advantage and against states like Iran, North Korea and Pakistan has also made it clear to people that promises made by the US for a liberal global order were just hollow. Therefore, people no longer like a world dominated by the US. This loss of soft power by the US will be a great disadvantage for America in its mission containment against China.